终于在上个月将Genting云顶卖完，由RM7.50开始卖着上，那种感觉只能讲爽啊。虽然没有卖到最高RM7.81，但是还是很开心。庆幸卖的快，以后可否上RM8.00还是未知数，不过打算以后跌下来再慢慢累积。卖掉了Genting云顶，换了两个手套股，SUPERMAX和HARTALEGA。不过由于买在高价位，目前还是亏损的。没办法，目前似乎第二波熊要来了，所以天天跌。
2009年还剩下不到2个月了。各位今年股票成绩如何？我今年有亏损，也有赚。庆幸当初买入大量Genting云顶，所以今年回报超越80%。现在开始分析明年2010年的计划了。以下是自己的想法，和当初买入Genting云顶的思考类似。
2010年，自己预计手套股将继续成长，原因主要目前A型H1N1流感由于在入秋和冬季可能会蔓延，之前美国总统Obama就颁布了紧急令以便应付它, 而且这几天翻阅报章，好像有蔓延迹象，让人担忧啊。而且年尾学校假期，加上现在人人似乎忘记它的存在了。第二原因是美国总统Obama的健保改革可能近一步带动手套的需求。当然，我也考虑美金贬值，出口美国的盈利相对可能会减少，树胶价格飙升的隐忧。目前只买入了SUPERMAX和HARTALEGA。
HARTALEGA
| Financial Year/March | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| ROIC | 32.60 | ||||
| Sales(m) | 109.58 | 160.28 | 240.91 | 257.58 | 443.20 |
| EPS | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Free Cashflow (m) | 52.38 | 75.76 | |||
| BVPS | 0.74 | 1.05 | |||
| Longterm Debts (m) | 40.38 | 67.49 | |||
| Debts Ratio | 0.77 | 0.89 | |||
| TL/E | 0.50 | 0.46 | |||
| Piotroski Test | 9 | ||||
| ROA | 26.32% |
一个成长快速的手套股, 无论profit margin,ROA,ROE等都是同行里头的表表者。我会买入是因为喜欢它目前为马来西亚少有的Nitrile Glove制造者，它拥有和别人不一样的优势。而且最近公布Quarter Report EPS约0.11，如果假设今年EPS=0.11*4=0.44乘P/E 15,合理价格为RM6.60。担忧的是债务，不过对于刚扩张的公司而言，我觉得还可以接受。2009 的TL/E ratio=0.46
至于SUPERMAX，如果以头三季的成绩来预估，今年EPS=0.1+0.07+0.15+(0.07)(自己预测)=0.39,乘P/E 15, 合理价格为RM5.85.况且最近公司宣布调高自己Target去EPS=0.44, 明年 EPS=0.50. 还有如果2009年PAT, Profit after Tax超越RM117Million将派发特别股息。以目前三个quarter总数来看，离这个目标很可能。手套股唯一让我担心的是其他国家开始抄袭技术，还有反倾销法令等这些贸易保护主意的东西。
2010年还有重大的东西发生, 就是FRS139在所有上市公司实行。可是目前做好准备的人不多呢。以后财报的阅读将可能和我们之前所认知的有不同。现在应该开始买入那些很旧都没有重估资产的公司，因为将会有一笔额外的unrealized profit.
2010我还看好目前低迷的船运公司。自己买入了MAYBULK.原因很简单，目前虽然这行业低迷，但是只要经济好转，原油和棕油运输就会活跃，它就可以重新热起来。我是以反向思考买入的。买入MAYBULK还有因为它派息不错，很稳定。当然MAYBULK目前我只买入少许而已。买入价RM3.10, 再跌会再买入更多。
2010最大的事情就是Resort World Singapore开张，对于娱乐场所不多的新加坡人，他们将会大开眼界，所有人蜂拥而入。所以当初我买入Genting.目前还在考虑买入Genting Singapore或 Genting.
2010如果美国经济近一步衰退，我觉得是亚洲开始领导世界的时间了。最坏的情形是更加严重的长期性萧条到来，美金被逼继续贬值以刺激出口和平衡收支。那时，石油大起，因为中国继续买入天然资源以刺激国内经济成长。超级inflation到来。买入石油的人最终笑着去银行拿钱。
Filed under: 我的分享集, 马来西亚KLSE股票 , 马来西亚股票, HARTALEGA, MAYBULK, SUPERMAX, 我的分享集, 油价, 云顶Genting
Head of conglomerate YTL, Francis Yeoh went hunting for bargains when the markets crashed. He’s not done shopping yet. Francis YeohDuring the height of the equity markets, Francis Yeoh sat restlessly on the sidelines watching rivals bid up prices. When Singapore’s Temasek decided to unload three of its power-generating firms last year, Yeoh, whose YTL Corp. is one of Southeast Asia’s biggest power companies, made offers he thought were fair. But he initially lost out, first in March 2008 to China Huaneng Group and then four months later to Japan’s Marubeni ( MARUY.PK – news – people ). It was a tough time for Yeoh. “You don’t know what kind of pressure I had before,” says the 55-year-old scion, as he sits in his penthouse office overlooking YTL’s Ritz-Carlton in Kuala Lumpur. His father, billionaire Yeoh Tiong Lay, founded YTL as a construction firm in 1955, but Francis took over daily operations two decades ago, transforming it into a $3.4 billion (market cap) multinational conglomerate. “When I had $3.8 billion in cash, a lot of people, especially fund managers and analysts, criticized me,” says Yeoh, “They said: ‘We can’t recommend your stock because you have so much cash and you don’t know what to do with it.’” But Yeoh, who is known for his flamboyant lifestyle, including his two helicopters, a private island and famous friends such as the late Luciano Pavarotti, is prudent in business. “I could not buy assets that were two or three times the market value,” he says, despite the fact that hedge funds and private equity players were paying those prices. Yeoh must have been one of the few businesspeople in the world who was relieved when the markets collapsed. He could finally go shopping: In October YTL paid $180 million in cash to buy control of Macquarie Prime Real Estate Investment Trust and its holding company, paying 49% of net asset value. Renamed Starhill Global REIT, it includes two shopping malls on Singapore’s busy Orchard Road, Wisma Atria and Ngee Ann City. Then in late November Temasek shelved the auction of PowerSeraya, Singapore’s second-largest power generator, because of unfavorable market conditions. Days later it privately called Yeoh to negotiate. Within a week subsidiary YTL Power agreed to pay $2.4 billion in stock and debt, or ten times Ebidta. When the sale was finalized in March, Yeoh, who converted to Christianity at age 16 and is deeply and overtly religious, issued a press release thanking “our Lord Jesus for blessing us with stewardship of this important asset.” Divine intervention not withstanding, the latest purchase strengthens YTL’s standing as a leading power supplier. “This puts us in a very strategic position to win more power assets globally, especially with our large cash reserves,” says Yeoh, who favors utilities because of the typically long-term concessions and steady profits. The conglomerate now gets 60% of its $2 billion sales from such assets. The deals also illustrate Yeoh’s tendency to preserve cash during boom times so he can spend during downturns. “YTL thrives in times when acquisition opportunities are aplenty at reasonable valuations,” says Bernard Ching, associate director of ECM Libra Research. “We expect YTL to pounce on a few assets before this recession is over.” One thing you won’t probably see is a sale: an eager buyer at the right prices, YTL is a reluctant seller in any market. Investors seem pleased. Net profit more than doubled in the third quarter ending Mar. 31, following the consolidation of the results from the two acquisitions. The stock is down 7% for the year–outperforming the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, down 21%–but it is up 27% since September. Francis’ father, who controls 53% of YTL’s shares, is again Malaysia’s seventh richest, worth $1.8 billion, despite dropping $300 million in the past year. Yeoh fils’ conservative approach is born of his family’s early history. A dirt-poor Chinese immigrant, his father started a construction business at the age of 30, eventually building army barracks and other government quarters. But business almost collapsed during the 1970s oil crisis. Relatives and employees pawned jewelry to help keep the firm going. Still, his father, who never went to college, collected enough money to send Francis, the oldest of his seven children, to study engineering at Kingston University in the U.K. His hope was that his son, then 16, would come back and reinvigorate the business. Yeoh returned four years later, in 1978, to work for the company. He was eventually joined by all six siblings, who now help run various businesses. Within a decade he was named managing director. One of his earliest ventures was developing a site on Pangkor, an island off Malaysia’s west coast. Today its lavish Pangkor Laut Resort, which Yeoh’s late wife helped design, is one of several luxurious resorts in the group’s portfolio. But Yeoh didn’t get an engineering degree to only develop vacation spots, and he eventually moved the company into more technically complex sectors. YTL now employs 3,000 engineers, who help build factories, power plants, hotels, even a rail link, at competitive prices. Yeoh’s big break came in 1992, sparked by a Malaysia-wide blackout. Fed up, the government awarded YTL the first license to operate a private power plant, breaking the monopoly held by the national utility. But foreign investors hesitated to fund the project and wanted risk premiums. So Yeoh arranged for the first-ever 15-year bond issued in Malaysian ringgits, sharply reducing its foreign-currency exposure. He later persuaded the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange to allow its subsidiary, YTL Power, to go public as an infrastructure project company, fast-tracking the offering by five years, well before the project was complete. These moves proved fortuitous during the 1997 Asia crisis when the ringgit’s value plunged by more than a third against the dollar. During that time YTL was able to pay down some debts, get more favorable rates and pick up bargains including prime properties in Kuala Lumpur. It paid $130 million in 1999 to buy two shopping malls, Starhill and Lot 10, and the JW Marriott from struggling outfit Taipong Consolidated. The Starhill mall, now called Starhill Gallery, cosponsored a luxury watch gala with Forbes last December. (The Forbes family played no role in initiating or compiling this story.) In 2000 YTL Power bought a 33.5% stake in ElectraNet, which operates the power transmission grid for the state of South Australia under a 200-year concession. When Enron collapsed and sold off its assets, including Wessex Water plant in the U.K., YTL surprised rivals by beating out a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland ( RBS – news – people ) for the plant in 2002. The $1.3 billion deal brought Yeoh international exposure and controversy. After the deal was done, Wessex’s chief executive was arrested for alleged improper payments from YTL; he was eventually cleared of any wrongdoing. No one from YTL was ever charged. The business, says Yeoh, is now worth $3.5 billion. Yeoh has had setbacks. For years he tried to get approval from the Malaysian government to build a fast train connecting Singapore and Malaysia, but the project was shelved in April 2008, apparently stalled by politics. Now Yeoh seems to be trying again, with Siemens ( SI – news – people ) Malaysia as a partner. He won’t say much. “The more I talk about it, the more the project will never come alive,” he worries. Still he argues that people didn’t believe in his high-speed rail between Kuala Lumpur International Airport and the city center, which carries 4.5 million people a year. “I pray that this project will come in my lifetime. Even if it is not done by me, I want to see it happen between the two countries.” YTL also had the misfortune of partnering with now defunct Lehman Brothers ( LEHMQ – news – people ) to develop a resort in Thailand’s Koh Samui. But it was a small deal, and YTL is negotiating to acquire the whole lot. With YTL still sitting on $2.8 billion in cash, more deals are likely. Yeoh says he is looking into a water business in China and plans to spend up to $700 million to build Malaysia’s first 4g network. EMC Libra analyst Ching thinks the U.K. is a “good hunting ground” for the conglomerate, in view of the weaker pound. No doubt Yeoh will try not to overpay. Says he: “I just can’t play that game.”
